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Bintang Lair vs Broki — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
CANC
21:30
Broki
Broki
3/10/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 9Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bintang Lair26%
×Draw19%
Broki55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
1.77
Broki
2.61

Broki creates 47% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 59 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
Broki
1.53

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
Broki
1.97

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
Broki+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

Broki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
45%
Bintang Lair or Broki
81%
Draw or Broki
74%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
12%
Broki wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
83%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
53%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
26%
Broki 1+ goals
93%
Broki 2+ goals
73%
Broki 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
32%
Broki (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

Broki away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + Broki defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Broki attack 1.53 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
26%
level
19%
Broki scores more
55%

Broki at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Broki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bintang Lair host Broki

March 10, 2023: Bintang Lair take on Broki in Eerste Divisie. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bintang Lair host Broki at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.