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Brodarac vs Crvena Zvezda MML — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Brodarac
Brodarac
FT
5 – 1
Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
11/21/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Brodarac60%
×Draw22%
Crvena Zvezda MML18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brodarac
1.88
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.91

Brodarac creates 107% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 27 away

creates per match

Brodarac
1.75
Crvena Zvezda MML
0.81

allows per match

Brodarac
1.01
Crvena Zvezda MML
2.00

finishing

Brodarac+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brodarac ↓

Crvena Zvezda MML →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brodarac or draw
82%
Brodarac or Crvena Zvezda MML
78%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda MML
40%

Winning margin

Brodarac wins by 2+
35%
Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brodarac 1+ goals
85%
Brodarac 2+ goals
56%
Brodarac 3+ goals
29%
Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
60%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
23%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brodarac (draw refunded)
77%
Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brodarac at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 99 matches

Crvena Zvezda MML away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brodarac attack 1.75 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 0.81 + Brodarac defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Brodarac scores more
60%
level
22%
Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
18%

Brodarac at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Brodarac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Brodarac 5–1 Crvena Zvezda MML

Brodarac beat Crvena Zvezda MML 5-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at FK Brodarac Stadion in Novi Beograd.