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Crvena Zvezda MML vs Brodarac — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Crvena Zvezda MML
Crvena Zvezda MML
CANC
00:00
Brodarac
Brodarac
5/3/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Crvena Zvezda MML40%
×Draw27%
Brodarac33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.35
Brodarac
1.20

Crvena Zvezda MML creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 98 away

creates per match

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.29
Brodarac
1.22

allows per match

Crvena Zvezda MML
1.18
Brodarac
1.41

finishing

Crvena Zvezda MML+0.00on par
Brodarac+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crvena Zvezda MML ↓

Brodarac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Crvena Zvezda MML or draw
67%
Crvena Zvezda MML or Brodarac
73%
Draw or Brodarac
60%

Winning margin

Crvena Zvezda MML wins by 2+
18%
Brodarac wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Crvena Zvezda MML 1+ goals
74%
Crvena Zvezda MML 2+ goals
39%
Crvena Zvezda MML 3+ goals
15%
Brodarac 1+ goals
70%
Brodarac 2+ goals
34%
Brodarac 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Crvena Zvezda MML (draw refunded)
55%
Brodarac (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crvena Zvezda MML at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

Brodarac away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.41 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crvena Zvezda MML attack 1.29 + Brodarac defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Brodarac attack 1.22 + Crvena Zvezda MML defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crvena Zvezda MML scores more
40%
level
27%
Brodarac scores more
33%

Crvena Zvezda MML at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crvena Zvezda MML will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Crvena Zvezda MML vs Brodarac — Match Preview

Crvena Zvezda MML face Brodarac on May 3, 2020 in this Srpska Liga - Belgrade fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.