Broadmeadow Magic 3–2 Adamstown Rosebuds

Broadmeadow Magic

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Adamstown Rosebuds

4/4/2025

Northern NSW NPL · Round 7Wanderers Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Broadmeadow Magic72%

×Draw16%

Adamstown Rosebuds13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Broadmeadow MagicExpected goals in this matchAdamstown Rosebuds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

1.12

Broadmeadow Magic

2.80

Adamstown Rosebuds

1.12

Broadmeadow Magic creates 150% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 77 away

2.72

creates per match

1.19

1.05

allows per match

2.88

creates per match

Broadmeadow Magic

2.72

Adamstown Rosebuds

1.19

allows per match

Broadmeadow Magic

1.05

Adamstown Rosebuds

2.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Broadmeadow Magic+0.00on par

Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Broadmeadow Magic ↓

Adamstown Rosebuds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Broadmeadow Magic or draw

87%

Broadmeadow Magic or Adamstown Rosebuds

84%

Draw or Adamstown Rosebuds

28%

Winning margin

Broadmeadow Magic wins by 2+

51%

Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Broadmeadow Magic 1+ goals

94%

Broadmeadow Magic 2+ goals

76%

Broadmeadow Magic 3+ goals

52%

Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals

67%

Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals

31%

Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Broadmeadow Magic (draw refunded)

85%

Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Broadmeadow Magic at home — creates 2.72, concedes 1.05 · 86 matches

Adamstown Rosebuds away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Broadmeadow Magic attack 2.72 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.80

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 1.19 + Broadmeadow Magic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Broadmeadow Magic scores more

72%

level

16%

Adamstown Rosebuds scores more

13%

Broadmeadow Magic at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Broadmeadow Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff