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Adamstown Rosebuds vs Broadmeadow Magic — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Adamstown Rosebuds
Adamstown Rosebuds
FT
2 – 8
HT: 1 – 5
Broadmeadow Magic
Broadmeadow Magic
5/18/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 12Adamstown Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Adamstown Rosebuds17%
×Draw19%
Broadmeadow Magic64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adamstown Rosebuds
1.10
Broadmeadow Magic
2.31

Broadmeadow Magic creates 110% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 81 away

creates per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
0.96
Broadmeadow Magic
2.32

allows per match

Adamstown Rosebuds
2.30
Broadmeadow Magic
1.25

finishing

Adamstown Rosebuds+0.00on par
Broadmeadow Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adamstown Rosebuds ↓

Broadmeadow Magic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Adamstown Rosebuds or draw
36%
Adamstown Rosebuds or Broadmeadow Magic
81%
Draw or Broadmeadow Magic
83%

Winning margin

Adamstown Rosebuds wins by 2+
6%
Broadmeadow Magic wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Adamstown Rosebuds 1+ goals
67%
Adamstown Rosebuds 2+ goals
30%
Adamstown Rosebuds 3+ goals
10%
Broadmeadow Magic 1+ goals
90%
Broadmeadow Magic 2+ goals
67%
Broadmeadow Magic 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Adamstown Rosebuds (draw refunded)
21%
Broadmeadow Magic (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adamstown Rosebuds at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.30 · 76 matches

Broadmeadow Magic away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.25 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adamstown Rosebuds attack 0.96 + Broadmeadow Magic defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.10

Broadmeadow Magic attack 2.32 + Adamstown Rosebuds defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Adamstown Rosebuds scores more
17%
level
19%
Broadmeadow Magic scores more
64%

Broadmeadow Magic at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Broadmeadow Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adamstown Rosebuds vs Broadmeadow Magic

Broadmeadow Magic beat Adamstown Rosebuds 8-2 in Northern NSW NPL on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Adamstown Oval in Newcastle.