Briviesca 1–1 Atlético Astorga: Result & Stats

Briviesca

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Atlético Astorga

11/30/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Briviesca31%

×Draw29%

Atlético Astorga40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BriviescaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Astorga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.17

Briviesca

0.98

Atlético Astorga

1.17

Atlético Astorga creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 93 away

1.06

creates per match

1.27

1.06

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Briviesca

1.06

Atlético Astorga

1.27

allows per match

Briviesca

1.06

Atlético Astorga

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Briviesca+0.00on par

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Briviesca ↓

Atlético Astorga →

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Briviesca or draw

60%

Briviesca or Atlético Astorga

71%

Draw or Atlético Astorga

69%

Winning margin

Briviesca wins by 2+

11%

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Briviesca 1+ goals

62%

Briviesca 2+ goals

26%

Briviesca 3+ goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

69%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

33%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Briviesca (draw refunded)

43%

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Briviesca at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Briviesca attack 1.06 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + Briviesca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Briviesca scores more

31%

level

29%

Atlético Astorga scores more

40%

Atlético Astorga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Briviesca vs Atlético Astorga

Briviesca and Atlético Astorga drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca in Briviesca.

Briviesca vs Atlético Astorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Briviesca vs Atlético Astorga