Atlético Astorga 3–0 Briviesca: Result & Stats

Atlético Astorga

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Briviesca

4/17/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 33Estadio La Eragudina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Atlético Astorga67%

×Draw21%

Briviesca12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético AstorgaExpected goals in this matchBriviesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.64

Atlético Astorga

1.87

Briviesca

0.64

Atlético Astorga creates 192% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 18 away

1.68

creates per match

0.50

0.77

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Atlético Astorga

1.68

Briviesca

0.50

allows per match

Atlético Astorga

0.77

Briviesca

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Briviesca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Astorga ↓

Briviesca →

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Astorga or draw

88%

Atlético Astorga or Briviesca

79%

Draw or Briviesca

33%

Winning margin

Atlético Astorga wins by 2+

40%

Briviesca wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Astorga 1+ goals

85%

Atlético Astorga 2+ goals

56%

Atlético Astorga 3+ goals

29%

Briviesca 1+ goals

47%

Briviesca 2+ goals

14%

Briviesca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)

85%

Briviesca (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Astorga at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.77 · 93 matches

Briviesca away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Astorga attack 1.68 + Briviesca defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.87

Briviesca attack 0.50 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Atlético Astorga scores more

67%

level

21%

Briviesca scores more

12%

Atlético Astorga at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Astorga vs Briviesca

Atlético Astorga beat Briviesca 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Eragudina in Astorga.

Atlético Astorga vs Briviesca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Astorga vs Briviesca