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Briviesca vs Arandina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Briviesca
Briviesca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Arandina
Arandina
4/20/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 34Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Briviesca32%
×Draw29%
Arandina38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Briviesca
1.04
Arandina
1.16

Arandina creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 94 away

creates per match

Briviesca
1.06
Arandina
1.26

allows per match

Briviesca
1.06
Arandina
1.03

finishing

Briviesca+0.00on par
Arandina+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Briviesca ↓

Arandina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Briviesca or draw
62%
Briviesca or Arandina
71%
Draw or Arandina
68%

Winning margin

Briviesca wins by 2+
12%
Arandina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Briviesca 1+ goals
65%
Briviesca 2+ goals
28%
Briviesca 3+ goals
9%
Arandina 1+ goals
69%
Arandina 2+ goals
32%
Arandina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Briviesca (draw refunded)
46%
Arandina (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Briviesca at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Arandina away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Briviesca attack 1.06 + Arandina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Arandina attack 1.26 + Briviesca defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Briviesca scores more
32%
level
29%
Arandina scores more
38%

Arandina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Briviesca vs Arandina

Briviesca and Arandina drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Futbol Briviesca in Briviesca.