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Arandina vs Briviesca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Arandina
Arandina
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Briviesca
Briviesca
12/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 15Estadio El Montecillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Arandina66%
×Draw22%
Briviesca13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arandina
1.83
Briviesca
0.65

Arandina creates 182% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 18 away

creates per match

Arandina
1.60
Briviesca
0.50

allows per match

Arandina
0.80
Briviesca
2.06

finishing

Arandina+0.00on par
Briviesca+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arandina ↓

Briviesca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arandina or draw
87%
Arandina or Briviesca
78%
Draw or Briviesca
34%

Winning margin

Arandina wins by 2+
39%
Briviesca wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Arandina 1+ goals
84%
Arandina 2+ goals
54%
Arandina 3+ goals
28%
Briviesca 1+ goals
48%
Briviesca 2+ goals
14%
Briviesca 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arandina (draw refunded)
84%
Briviesca (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arandina at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Briviesca away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arandina attack 1.60 + Briviesca defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.83

Briviesca attack 0.50 + Arandina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Arandina scores more
66%
level
22%
Briviesca scores more
13%

Arandina at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Arandina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arandina vs Briviesca

Arandina and Briviesca drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Montecillo in Aranda de Duero.