Brittons Hill 2–0 UWI Blackbirds: Result & Stats

Brittons Hill

FT

2 – 0

UWI Blackbirds

2/5/2023

Premier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Brittons Hill49%

×Draw23%

UWI Blackbirds28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brittons HillExpected goals in this matchUWI Blackbirds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.36

Brittons Hill

1.86

UWI Blackbirds

1.36

Brittons Hill creates 37% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

2.13

creates per match

1.59

1.13

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Brittons Hill

2.13

UWI Blackbirds

1.59

allows per match

Brittons Hill

1.13

UWI Blackbirds

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

UWI Blackbirds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw

72%

Brittons Hill or UWI Blackbirds

77%

Draw or UWI Blackbirds

51%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

27%

UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

84%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

55%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

28%

UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals

74%

UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals

39%

UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

64%

UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.13 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.86

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Brittons Hill defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brittons Hill scores more

49%

level

23%

UWI Blackbirds scores more

28%

Brittons Hill at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff