Brittons Hill vs St. Andrew Lions

Brittons Hill

CANC

21:00

St. Andrew Lions

4/4/2020

Premier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Brittons Hill60%

×Draw19%

St. Andrew Lions21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brittons HillExpected goals in this matchSt. Andrew Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.40

Brittons Hill

2.47

St. Andrew Lions

1.40

Brittons Hill creates 76% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 27 away

2.13

creates per match

1.67

1.13

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Brittons Hill

2.13

St. Andrew Lions

1.67

allows per match

Brittons Hill

1.13

St. Andrew Lions

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

St. Andrew Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

St. Andrew Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw

79%

Brittons Hill or St. Andrew Lions

81%

Draw or St. Andrew Lions

40%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

39%

St. Andrew Lions wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

91%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

70%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

44%

St. Andrew Lions 1+ goals

75%

St. Andrew Lions 2+ goals

41%

St. Andrew Lions 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

74%

St. Andrew Lions (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

St. Andrew Lions away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.81 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.13 + St. Andrew Lions defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.47

St. Andrew Lions attack 1.67 + Brittons Hill defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Brittons Hill scores more

60%

level

19%

St. Andrew Lions scores more

21%

Brittons Hill at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff