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Brittons Hill vs Kick Start — Premier League 2024

Brittons Hill
Brittons Hill
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kick Start
Kick Start
3/2/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Brittons Hill49%
×Draw22%
Kick Start29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brittons Hill
1.96
Kick Start
1.47

Brittons Hill creates 33% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

creates per match

Brittons Hill
2.53
Kick Start
1.83

allows per match

Brittons Hill
1.10
Kick Start
1.39

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par
Kick Start+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

Kick Start →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw
71%
Brittons Hill or Kick Start
78%
Draw or Kick Start
51%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+
28%
Kick Start wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals
86%
Brittons Hill 2+ goals
58%
Brittons Hill 3+ goals
31%
Kick Start 1+ goals
77%
Kick Start 2+ goals
43%
Kick Start 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)
63%
Kick Start (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.10 · 30 matches

Kick Start away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.53 + Kick Start defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kick Start attack 1.83 + Brittons Hill defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brittons Hill scores more
49%
level
22%
Kick Start scores more
29%

Brittons Hill at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brittons Hill vs Kick Start

Brittons Hill beat Kick Start 3-2 in Premier League on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.