Brittons Hill 0–1 Kick Start: Result & Stats

Brittons Hill

FT

0 – 1

Kick Start

4/1/2024

Premier League · Round 5Friendship Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Brittons Hill43%

×Draw24%

Kick Start34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brittons HillExpected goals in this matchKick Start

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.44

Brittons Hill

1.65

Kick Start

1.44

Brittons Hill creates 15% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 28 away

2.13

creates per match

1.75

1.13

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Brittons Hill

2.13

Kick Start

1.75

allows per match

Brittons Hill

1.13

Kick Start

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Kick Start+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brittons Hill ↓

Kick Start →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Brittons Hill or draw

66%

Brittons Hill or Kick Start

76%

Draw or Kick Start

57%

Winning margin

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

22%

Kick Start wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

81%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

49%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

23%

Kick Start 1+ goals

76%

Kick Start 2+ goals

42%

Kick Start 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

56%

Kick Start (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brittons Hill at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 48 matches

Kick Start away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brittons Hill attack 2.13 + Kick Start defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kick Start attack 1.75 + Brittons Hill defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Brittons Hill scores more

43%

level

24%

Kick Start scores more

34%

Brittons Hill at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Brittons Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff