Britannia 6–0 Brazil Juniors: Result & Stats

Britannia

FT

6 – 0

Brazil Juniors

10/25/2014

Division di Honor · Round 3Compleho Deportivo Frans Figaroa (Noord)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Britannia72%

×Draw15%

Brazil Juniors13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BritanniaExpected goals in this matchBrazil Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.95

1.21

Britannia

2.95

Brazil Juniors

1.21

Britannia creates 144% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 16 away

2.21

creates per match

1.25

1.16

allows per match

3.69

creates per match

Britannia

2.21

Brazil Juniors

1.25

allows per match

Britannia

1.16

Brazil Juniors

3.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Britannia+0.00on par

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Britannia ↓

Brazil Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Britannia or draw

87%

Britannia or Brazil Juniors

85%

Draw or Brazil Juniors

28%

Winning margin

Britannia wins by 2+

52%

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Britannia 1+ goals

95%

Britannia 2+ goals

79%

Britannia 3+ goals

55%

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals

70%

Brazil Juniors 2+ goals

34%

Brazil Juniors 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Britannia (draw refunded)

85%

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Britannia at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

Brazil Juniors away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Britannia attack 2.21 + Brazil Juniors defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.95

Brazil Juniors attack 1.25 + Britannia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Britannia scores more

72%

level

15%

Brazil Juniors scores more

13%

Britannia at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff