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Brazil Juniors vs Britannia — Division di Honor 2019

Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
FT
2 – 6
Britannia
Britannia
10/26/2019Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 5Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brazil Juniors26%
×Draw20%
Britannia53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazil Juniors
1.56
Britannia
2.27

Britannia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 69 away

creates per match

Brazil Juniors
1.85
Britannia
2.22

allows per match

Brazil Juniors
2.31
Britannia
1.26

finishing

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par
Britannia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil Juniors ↓

Britannia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Brazil Juniors or draw
47%
Brazil Juniors or Britannia
80%
Draw or Britannia
74%

Winning margin

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
12%
Britannia wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
79%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
46%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
21%
Britannia 1+ goals
90%
Britannia 2+ goals
66%
Britannia 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
33%
Britannia (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil Juniors at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Britannia away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil Juniors attack 1.85 + Britannia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.56

Britannia attack 2.22 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brazil Juniors scores more
26%
level
20%
Britannia scores more
53%

Britannia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Britannia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brazil Juniors vs Britannia

Britannia beat Brazil Juniors 6-2 in Division di Honor on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.