Bristol Rovers 1–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Bristol Rovers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Gillingham

T. Smith 38'

T. O'Connor 83'

9/17/2019

League One · Round 9Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Bristol Rovers38%

×Draw27%

Gillingham36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol RoversExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Bristol Rovers

1.29

Gillingham

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 99 away

1.20

creates per match

1.17

1.34

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Bristol Rovers

1.20

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Bristol Rovers

1.34

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw

64%

Bristol Rovers or Gillingham

73%

Draw or Gillingham

62%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

72%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

37%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

14%

Gillingham 1+ goals

71%

Gillingham 2+ goals

36%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

51%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.34 · 133 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.20 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more

38%

level

27%

Gillingham scores more

36%

Bristol Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

T. Davies

Bristol Rovers · D

7.7

Match Events

13'

J. Tucker← B. Fuller

38'

T. Smith↳ L. Leahy

46'

M. Marshall← M. Ndjoli

54'

L. Sercombe← O. Clarke

62'

M. Mandron← B. Hanlan

74'

M. Little← J. Hare

80'

V. Adeboyejo← T. Smith

83'

T. O'Connor

90'

Liam Sercombe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolGillingham

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots13

2Corners7

4Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target5

5Off Target5

4Blocked3

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

366Total Passes357

235Accurate Passes220

64%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

4Offsides0