Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
Preview
14:00
Exeter City
Exeter City
9/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Memorial Stadium
Big match
42%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
42%25%33%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bristol Rovers42%
×Draw25%
Exeter City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.47
Exeter City
1.27

Bristol Rovers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 97 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.61
Exeter City
1.35

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.18
Exeter City
1.32

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
67%
Bristol Rovers or Exeter City
75%
Draw or Exeter City
58%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Exeter City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
77%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
43%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
18%
Exeter City 1+ goals
72%
Exeter City 2+ goals
36%
Exeter City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
56%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.61 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
42%
level
25%
Exeter City scores more
33%

Bristol Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
Exeter City
Balanced
52%Possession51%
66%Pass accuracyBiggest gap63%
12.5Shots12.1
1.38xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bristol RoversExeter City

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Bristol Rovers
2
Draws
5
Exeter City
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 78%
1–21–31–00–13–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rovers
DDLW
City
LLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol Rovers face Exeter City (League Two)

League Two returns with Bristol Rovers hosting Exeter City. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bristol Rovers host Exeter City at Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.