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Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
2 – 1
Exeter City
Exeter City
8/15/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bristol Rovers39%
×Draw23%
Exeter City38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.70
Exeter City
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.80
Exeter City
1.73

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.60
Exeter City
1.60

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
62%
Bristol Rovers or Exeter City
77%
Draw or Exeter City
61%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
20%
Exeter City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
82%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
51%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
24%
Exeter City 1+ goals
81%
Exeter City 2+ goals
50%
Exeter City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
51%
Exeter City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.80 + Exeter City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.70

Exeter City attack 1.73 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
39%
level
23%
Exeter City scores more
38%

Bristol Rovers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bristol Rovers vs Exeter City

Bristol Rovers beat Exeter City 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.