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Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
Preview
15:00
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
11/14/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 15Memorial Stadium
Big match
44%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
44%26%30%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Bristol Rovers44%
×Draw26%
Chesterfield30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.48
Chesterfield
1.17

Bristol Rovers creates 26% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.40
Chesterfield
1.22

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.13
Chesterfield
1.57

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.03on par
Chesterfield+0.09on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
70%
Bristol Rovers or Chesterfield
74%
Draw or Chesterfield
56%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
22%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
77%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
43%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
19%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
69%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
33%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
60%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 14 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.57 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.40 + Chesterfield defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chesterfield attack 1.22 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
44%
level
26%
Chesterfield scores more
30%

Bristol Rovers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Style contrast — Bristol Rovers play Defensively solid, Chesterfield Possession-dominant
  • Bristol Rovers win just 26% against the top half (vs 65% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
Chesterfield
Possession-dominant
52%Possession60%
66%Pass accuracyBiggest gap78%
12.5Shots12.2
1.38xG1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Bristol RoversChesterfield

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

3
Bristol Rovers
1
Draws
5
Chesterfield
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 67%
2–31–32–02–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rovers
DDLW
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bristol Rovers face Chesterfield (League Two)

League Two returns with Bristol Rovers hosting Chesterfield. Match starts November 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bristol Rovers host Chesterfield at Memorial Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.