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Bristol Rovers vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barnsley
Barnsley
8/12/2023League OneLeague One · Round 2Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Bristol Rovers32%
×Draw26%
Barnsley42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.24
Barnsley
1.46

Barnsley creates 18% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 118 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.17
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.33
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
58%
Bristol Rovers or Barnsley
74%
Draw or Barnsley
68%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
14%
Barnsley wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
71%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
35%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
13%
Barnsley 1+ goals
77%
Barnsley 2+ goals
43%
Barnsley 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
43%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.17 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
32%
level
26%
Barnsley scores more
42%

Barnsley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bristol Rovers 1–1 Barnsley

Bristol Rovers and Barnsley drew 1-1 in League One on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.