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Barnsley vs Bristol Rovers — League One 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
1/13/2024League OneLeague One · Round 28Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Barnsley49%
×Draw25%
Bristol Rovers26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.63
Bristol Rovers
1.12

Barnsley creates 46% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 133 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.68
Bristol Rovers
0.94

allows per match

Barnsley
1.30
Bristol Rovers
1.58

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
74%
Barnsley or Bristol Rovers
75%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
51%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
26%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
80%
Barnsley 2+ goals
48%
Barnsley 3+ goals
22%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
67%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
31%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
65%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.58 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Bristol Rovers attack 0.94 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnsley scores more
49%
level
25%
Bristol Rovers scores more
26%

Barnsley at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Barnsley 2–1 Bristol Rovers

Barnsley beat Bristol Rovers 2-1 in League One on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.