Bristol City 1–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

A. Mehmeti 75' (pen)

H. Burrows 90+8'

R. Oné 86'

11/5/2024

Championship · Round 14Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Bristol City36%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.29

Bristol City

1.25

Sheffield Utd

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 39 away

1.31

creates per match

1.36

1.23

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Bristol City

1.31

Sheffield Utd

1.36

allows per match

Bristol City

1.23

Sheffield Utd

1.18

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.16scores more

Sheffield Utd+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

62%

Bristol City or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

64%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

15%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

71%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

72%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

37%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

49%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 58 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.31 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Bristol City defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol City scores more

36%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

38%

Sheffield Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

H. Burrows

Sheffield Utd · D

8.0

Match Events

6'

A. Mehmeti← M. Sykes

46'

S. Armstrong← N. Wells

58'

K. Moore← T. Campbell

58'

O. Arblaster← S. Peck

58'

J. Rak-Sakyi← A. Brooks

69'

H. Roberts← C. Pring

69'

R. Oné← K. Moore

74'

Michael Cooper

75'

A. MehmetiPenalty

77'

F. Seriki← A. Gilchrist

80'

R. Dickie← K. Naismith

80'

E. Morrison← G. Earthy

86'

R. Oné

90+5'

Robert Dickie

90+9'

Ryan One

90+8'

H. Burrows↳ O. Arblaster

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolSheffield

Overview

46%Possession54%

12Total Shots11

1.52Expected Goals (xG)0.96

2Corners4

8Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots11

2On Target4

4Off Target5

6Blocked2

9Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

451Total Passes537

365Accurate Passes452

81%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11

Discipline

8Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1