Bristol City 1–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

C. Martin 49'

M. Gibbs-White 61'

4/18/2022

Championship · Round 43Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Bristol City37%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.23

Bristol City

1.24

Sheffield Utd

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 45 away

1.29

creates per match

1.27

1.19

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Sheffield Utd

1.27

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Sheffield Utd

1.19

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

64%

Bristol City or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

63%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

71%

Bristol City 2+ goals

35%

Bristol City 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

71%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

35%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

50%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sheffield Utd attack 1.27 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol City scores more

37%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

36%

Bristol City at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

H. Massengo

Bristol City · M

7.9

Match Events

21'

Chris Basham

41'

John Egan

48'

A. Benarous← J. Dasilva

49'

C. Martin↳ A. Semenyo

61'

65'

70'

76'

81'

B. Osborn← G. Baldock

83'

Andreas Weimann

84'

John Fleck

90+1'

Timm Klose

90+6'

C. Hourihane← J. Fleck

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolSheffield

Overview

33%Possession67%

7Total Shots16

2Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots16

3On Target5

4Off Target5

0Blocked6

6Inside Box8

1Outside Box8

Passing

33%Possession67%

276Total Passes583

181Accurate Passes492

66%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides4