Bristol City 2–3 Luton: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Luton

Á. Nagy 38'

N. Wells 31'

H. Cornick 74'

E. Adebayo 68'

J. Collins 59'

4/25/2021

Championship · Round 44Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Bristol City47%

×Draw27%

Luton27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.02

Bristol City

1.44

Luton

1.02

Bristol City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 21 away

1.29

creates per match

0.85

1.19

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Luton

1.59

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

73%

Bristol City or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

53%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

23%

Luton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

76%

Bristol City 2+ goals

42%

Bristol City 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

64%

Luton 2+ goals

27%

Luton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

64%

Luton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Luton attack 0.85 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bristol City scores more

47%

level

27%

Luton scores more

27%

Bristol City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Á. Nagy

Bristol City · M

8.2

Match Events

31'

N. Wells↳ Á. Nagy

38'

Á. Nagy

46'

J. Collins← K. LuaLua

46'

H. Cornick← R. Tunnicliffe

59'

J. Collins↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall

68'

E. Adebayo↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall

71'

A. Semenyo← N. Wells

71'

A. Scott← H. Lansbury

71'

N. Baker← Á. Nagy

71'

J. Hunt← T. Rowe

74'

H. Cornick↳ J. Collins

86'

S. Janneh← T. Bakinson

86'

G. Rea← E. Adebayo

86'

D. Potts← J. Clark

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolLuton

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots14

4Corners5

10Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots14

4On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked4

7Inside Box12

3Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

410Total Passes398

302Accurate Passes284

74%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls9

4Offsides1