Bristol City 3–0 Luton: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Luton

A. Weimann 66'

F. Diedhiou 44' (pen)

M. Watkins 4'

12/29/2019

Championship · Round 25Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Bristol City47%

×Draw27%

Luton27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchLuton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.02

Bristol City

1.44

Luton

1.02

Bristol City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 21 away

1.29

creates per match

0.85

1.19

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Luton

0.85

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Luton

1.59

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Luton-0.04on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Luton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

73%

Bristol City or Luton

73%

Draw or Luton

53%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

23%

Luton wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

76%

Bristol City 2+ goals

42%

Bristol City 3+ goals

18%

Luton 1+ goals

64%

Luton 2+ goals

27%

Luton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

64%

Luton (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Luton away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.59 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Luton defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Luton attack 0.85 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bristol City scores more

47%

level

27%

Luton scores more

27%

Bristol City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

N. Eliasson

Bristol City · M

8.7

Match Events

4'

M. Watkins↳ N. Eliasson

32'

Luke Berry

44'

F. DiedhiouPenalty

46'

M. Cranie← L. Bolton

49'

Ashley Williams

58'

Sonny Bradley

60'

G. Moncur← R. Tunnicliffe

63'

66'

68'

76'

80'

81'

A. Sheehan← K. LuaLua

84'

Rodri← F. Diedhiou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolLuton

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots9

5Corners4

13Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots9

8On Target1

4Off Target3

2Blocked5

9Inside Box4

5Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

348Total Passes426

251Accurate Passes326

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

3Offsides1