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Bristol City vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
N. Wells 70' (pen)
2/25/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Bristol City43%
×Draw26%
Hull City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.41
Hull City
1.15

Bristol City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 56 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.30
Hull City
1.11

allows per match

Bristol City
1.19
Hull City
1.52

finishing

Bristol City+0.14scores more
Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
69%
Bristol City or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
57%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
20%
Hull City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
76%
Bristol City 2+ goals
41%
Bristol City 3+ goals
17%
Hull City 1+ goals
68%
Hull City 2+ goals
32%
Hull City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
58%
Hull City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.30 + Hull City defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hull City attack 1.11 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol City scores more
43%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
31%

Bristol City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
R. LongmanHull CityHull City · F
7.5

Match Events

46'
R. Longman← O. Tufan
55'
B. Tetteh← M. Ebiowei
62'
N. Wells← S. Bell
65'
L. Coyle← R. Slater
70'
N. WellsPenalty
72'
H. Cornick← G. Tanner
78'
A. Traoré← G. Docherty
80'
A. Weimann← A. Scott
80'
J. Dasilva← A. Mehmeti
82'
Lewie Coyle

Possession

49%Bristol

Shots

10Bristol

Pass accuracy

49%Bristol

Statistics

BristolHull
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots11
7Corners3
6Fouls8
Shots
10Total Shots11
3On Target1
1Off Target6
6Blocked4
8Inside Box9
2Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
485Total Passes510
355Accurate Passes394
73%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Bristol City vs Hull City

Bristol City beat Hull City 1-0 in Championship on February 25, 2023.

Goals: N. Wells (70' pen).

Hull City controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ashton Gate in Bristol.