Bristol City 5–0 Hull City: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Hull City

A. Weimann 82', 5'

C. Martin 54', 35'

A. Semenyo 33'

4/30/2022

Championship · Round 45Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Bristol City43%

×Draw26%

Hull City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.17

Bristol City

1.42

Hull City

1.17

Bristol City creates 21% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 56 away

1.32

creates per match

1.11

1.22

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Bristol City

1.32

Hull City

1.11

allows per match

Bristol City

1.22

Hull City

1.52

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Hull City+0.05on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

69%

Bristol City or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

57%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

20%

Hull City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

76%

Bristol City 2+ goals

41%

Bristol City 3+ goals

17%

Hull City 1+ goals

69%

Hull City 2+ goals

33%

Hull City 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

58%

Hull City (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 59 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.32 + Hull City defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hull City attack 1.11 + Bristol City defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol City scores more

43%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

31%

Bristol City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

C. Martin

Bristol City · F

9.2

Match Events

5'

A. Weimann↳ A. Semenyo

23'

Alex Scott

33'

A. Semenyo↳ A. Weimann

35'

C. Martin↳ A. Semenyo

46'

R. Slater← T. Eaves

54'

C. Martin

60'

A. Benarous← A. Scott

74'

M. Forss← A. Sayyadmanesh

78'

R. Longman← B. Fleming

79'

N. Wells← A. Semenyo

82'

A. Weimann↳ C. Martin

83'

T. Conway← A. Weimann

88'

Richard Smallwood

90'

Alfie Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolHull

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots12

1Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots12

8On Target5

2Off Target6

2Blocked1

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box8

Passing

50%Possession50%

443Total Passes446

358Accurate Passes349

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides5