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Bristol City vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Bristol City
Bristol City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coventry
Coventry
R. Dickie 45'
10/21/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Ashton Gate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Bristol City35%
×Draw26%
Coventry38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol City
1.27
Coventry
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

creates per match

Bristol City
1.31
Coventry
1.47

allows per match

Bristol City
1.20
Coventry
1.23

finishing

Bristol City+0.16scores more
Coventry+0.06on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw
62%
Bristol City or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
65%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+
15%
Coventry wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals
72%
Bristol City 2+ goals
36%
Bristol City 3+ goals
14%
Coventry 1+ goals
74%
Coventry 2+ goals
38%
Coventry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)
48%
Coventry (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.31 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.47 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol City scores more
35%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
38%

Coventry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
R. DickieBristol CityBristol City · D
8.3

Match Events

38'
J. Knight← H. Roberts
45'
R. Dickie↳ T. Gardner-Hickman
55'
Andreas Weimann
66'
H. Cornick← T. Conway
75'
Josh Eccles
75'
E. Yeboah← S. Bell
75'
H. Wright← E. Simms
75'
Y. Ayari← T. Sakamoto
81'
Yasin Ayari
89'
Jay Dasilva
89'
J. Latibeaudiere← K. McFadzean
90+5'
Ephraim Yeboah

Possession

32%Bristol

Shots

6Bristol

Pass accuracy

41%Bristol

Statistics

BristolCoventry
Overview
32%Possession68%
6Total Shots12
0.36Expected Goals (xG)0.49
2Corners15
15Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots12
3On Target1
2Off Target8
1Blocked3
3Inside Box4
3Outside Box8
Passing
32%Possession68%
283Total Passes579
158Accurate Passes458
56%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Championship: Bristol City 1–0 Coventry

Bristol City beat Coventry 1-0 in Championship on October 21, 2023.

Goals: R. Dickie (45').

Coventry controlled possession (68%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Ashton Gate Stadium in Bristol.