Bristol City 0–0 Coventry: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coventry

10/4/2022

Championship · Round 13Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Bristol City35%

×Draw26%

Coventry38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.33

Bristol City

1.27

Coventry

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 55 away

1.31

creates per match

1.47

1.20

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Bristol City

1.31

Coventry

1.47

allows per match

Bristol City

1.20

Coventry

1.23

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.16scores more

Coventry+0.06on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

62%

Bristol City or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

65%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

15%

Coventry wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

72%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

74%

Coventry 2+ goals

38%

Coventry 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

48%

Coventry (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 60 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.31 + Coventry defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Coventry attack 1.47 + Bristol City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol City scores more

35%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

38%

Coventry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

K. Palmer

Coventry · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

Robert Atkinson

41'

J. Williams← K. Naismith

76'

T. Conway← A. Semenyo

78'

Joe Williams

79'

Ben Sheaf

82'

T. Walker← M. Godden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolCoventry

Overview

63%Possession37%

9Total Shots10

9Corners2

7Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target3

4Off Target2

2Blocked5

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

482Total Passes299

387Accurate Passes201

80%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3