Bristol City 1–2 Coventry: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Coventry

C. Martin 62'

V. Gyökeres 89'

I. Maatsen 25'

2/22/2022

Championship · Round 34Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Bristol City35%

×Draw27%

Coventry38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.31

Bristol City

1.25

Coventry

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 58 away

1.29

creates per match

1.44

1.19

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Coventry

1.44

allows per match

Bristol City

1.19

Coventry

1.22

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.15scores more

Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

62%

Bristol City or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

65%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

15%

Coventry wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

71%

Bristol City 2+ goals

36%

Bristol City 3+ goals

13%

Coventry 1+ goals

73%

Coventry 2+ goals

38%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

48%

Coventry (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.19 · 63 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coventry attack 1.44 + Bristol City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bristol City scores more

35%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

38%

Coventry at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

G. Hamer

Coventry · M

8.0

Match Events

25'

39'

59'

59'

62'

C. Martin↳ A. Weimann

76'

J. Williams← S. Bell

76'

C. Pring← A. Benarous

82'

F. Dabo← T. Kane

82'

J. Shipley← I. Maatsen

88'

Fankaty Dabo

89'

V. Gyökeres↳ G. Hamer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolCoventry

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots12

4Corners4

5Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target4

7Off Target2

2Blocked6

9Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

479Total Passes344

387Accurate Passes239

81%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1