Bristol City 0–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Cardiff

K. Moore 25'

C. Nelson 18'

2/6/2021

Championship · Round 28Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Bristol City43%

×Draw27%

Cardiff30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.09

Bristol City

1.35

Cardiff

1.09

Bristol City creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 34 away

1.35

creates per match

0.85

1.33

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Bristol City

1.35

Cardiff

0.85

allows per match

Bristol City

1.33

Cardiff

1.36

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Bristol City+0.08on par

Cardiff+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

70%

Bristol City or Cardiff

73%

Draw or Cardiff

57%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

20%

Cardiff wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

74%

Bristol City 2+ goals

39%

Bristol City 3+ goals

15%

Cardiff 1+ goals

66%

Cardiff 2+ goals

30%

Cardiff 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

59%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.36 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.35 + Cardiff defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Cardiff attack 0.85 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bristol City scores more

43%

level

27%

Cardiff scores more

30%

Bristol City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

H. Wilson

Cardiff · F

7.9

Match Events

11'

D. Phillips← A. Smithies

18'

C. Nelson↳ H. Wilson

25'

K. Moore↳ S. Ojo

45'

Alfie Mawson

45'

Henri Lansbury

60'

J. Paterson← H. Massengo

60'

K. Palmer← J. Williams

60'

T. Moore← A. Mariappa

70'

Z. Vyner← H. Lansbury

71'

Jack Hunt

72'

M. Pack← H. Wilson

75'

Dillon Phillips

80'

L. Bacuna← S. Ojo

90'

Curtis Nelson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BristolCardiff

Overview

61%Possession39%

7Total Shots12

3Corners11

12Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots12

1On Target4

3Off Target7

3Blocked1

4Inside Box8

3Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

431Total Passes258

310Accurate Passes143

72%Pass Accuracy55%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2