Bristol City 2–1 Barnsley: Result & Stats

Bristol City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Barnsley

10/30/2021

Championship · Round 15Ashton Gate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Bristol City45%

×Draw27%

Barnsley28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bristol CityExpected goals in this matchBarnsley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.05

Bristol City

1.42

Barnsley

1.05

Bristol City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 190 home / 76 away

1.29

creates per match

0.93

1.17

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Bristol City

1.29

Barnsley

0.93

allows per match

Bristol City

1.17

Barnsley

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bristol City+0.00on par

Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol City ↓

Barnsley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bristol City or draw

72%

Bristol City or Barnsley

73%

Draw or Barnsley

55%

Winning margin

Bristol City wins by 2+

22%

Barnsley wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bristol City 1+ goals

76%

Bristol City 2+ goals

41%

Bristol City 3+ goals

17%

Barnsley 1+ goals

65%

Barnsley 2+ goals

28%

Barnsley 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bristol City (draw refunded)

62%

Barnsley (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.17 · 190 matches

Barnsley away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.54 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol City attack 1.29 + Barnsley defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barnsley attack 0.93 + Bristol City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bristol City scores more

45%

level

27%

Barnsley scores more

28%

Bristol City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bristol City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff