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Barnsley vs Bristol City — Championship 2018

Barnsley
Barnsley
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Bristol City
Bristol City
3/15/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Barnsley39%
×Draw27%
Bristol City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.30
Bristol City
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 187 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.13
Bristol City
1.14

allows per match

Barnsley
1.26
Bristol City
1.48

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Bristol City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Bristol City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
66%
Barnsley or Bristol City
73%
Draw or Bristol City
61%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
17%
Bristol City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
73%
Barnsley 2+ goals
37%
Barnsley 3+ goals
14%
Bristol City 1+ goals
70%
Bristol City 2+ goals
34%
Bristol City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
53%
Bristol City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 187 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.13 + Bristol City defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bristol City attack 1.14 + Barnsley defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnsley scores more
39%
level
27%
Bristol City scores more
34%

Barnsley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barnsley vs Bristol City

Barnsley beat Bristol City 2-0 in Championship on March 15, 2022.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.