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Brisbane Roar II vs Moreton City Excelsior — Queensland NPL 2026

Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
Preview
04:30
Moreton City Excelsior
Moreton City Excelsior
8/2/2026Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 20
Big match
51%
Moreton City Excelsior
model favours
27%22%51%

89% of Brisbane Roar II’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Brisbane Roar II27%
×Draw22%
Moreton City Excelsior51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brisbane Roar II
1.35
Moreton City Excelsior
1.94

Moreton City Excelsior creates 44% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 31 away

creates per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.73
Moreton City Excelsior
2.00

allows per match

Brisbane Roar II
1.88
Moreton City Excelsior
0.97

finishing

Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par
Moreton City Excelsior+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar II ↓

Moreton City Excelsior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar II or draw
49%
Brisbane Roar II or Moreton City Excelsior
78%
Draw or Moreton City Excelsior
73%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
11%
Moreton City Excelsior wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
74%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
39%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
15%
Moreton City Excelsior 1+ goals
86%
Moreton City Excelsior 2+ goals
58%
Moreton City Excelsior 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
34%
Moreton City Excelsior (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar II at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.88 · 89 matches

Moreton City Excelsior away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.73 + Moreton City Excelsior defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.35

Moreton City Excelsior attack 2.00 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brisbane Roar II scores more
27%
level
22%
Moreton City Excelsior scores more
51%

Moreton City Excelsior at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Moreton City Excelsior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Brisbane Roar II score first in only 17% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (89% and 72% over 2.5)
  • Moreton City Excelsior score first in only 22% of matches
  • Brisbane Roar II have scored in 10 games running
  • 72% of Moreton City Excelsior’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Moreton City Excelsior have won 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
LWDLW
Excelsior
DWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brisbane Roar II vs Moreton City Excelsior — Match Preview

Brisbane Roar II face Moreton City Excelsior on August 2, 2026 in this Queensland NPL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.