Brisbane City 5–1 SC Wanderers: Result & Stats

Brisbane City

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SC Wanderers

G. Chiba 89'

M. Jones 87'

K. Bolton 68'

J. Macuace 52', 37'

M. Nezval 75' (pen)

5/13/2023

Queensland NPL · Round 10Imperial Corp Stadium 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Brisbane City49%

×Draw21%

SC Wanderers30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane CityExpected goals in this matchSC Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.65

Brisbane City

2.12

SC Wanderers

1.65

Brisbane City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 79 away

1.82

creates per match

1.33

1.97

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Brisbane City

1.82

SC Wanderers

1.33

allows per match

Brisbane City

1.97

SC Wanderers

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane City+0.00on par

SC Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane City ↓

SC Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Brisbane City or draw

70%

Brisbane City or SC Wanderers

79%

Draw or SC Wanderers

51%

Winning margin

Brisbane City wins by 2+

28%

SC Wanderers wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Brisbane City 1+ goals

88%

Brisbane City 2+ goals

62%

Brisbane City 3+ goals

35%

SC Wanderers 1+ goals

81%

SC Wanderers 2+ goals

49%

SC Wanderers 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Brisbane City (draw refunded)

62%

SC Wanderers (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane City at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.97 · 77 matches

SC Wanderers away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.41 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane City attack 1.82 + SC Wanderers defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.12

SC Wanderers attack 1.33 + Brisbane City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brisbane City scores more

49%

level

21%

SC Wanderers scores more

30%

Brisbane City at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Brisbane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

J. Macuace↳ M. Yokoyama

52'

J. Macuace↳ O. Plusnin

58'

J. Enticknap← L. Walpole

58'

M. Nezval← S. Lewis

63'

J. Caspanello← C. McKenzie

68'

K. Bolton

69'

G. Chiba← B. Doolan

75'

M. NezvalPenalty

79'

D. Westwood-Pritchard← D. Robertson

79'

S. Wiltshire← C. Lilley

87'

M. Jones↳ K. Bolton

89'

G. Chiba↳ K. Bolton

90'

L. Pullen← W. Dent

Brisbane

SC

1

5

3

13

4

8

17

▼

Walpole

14

▼

Robertson

12

▼

Lilley

11

Vanderhar

18

▼

Lewis

20

Hudson

4

Bowles

5

⚽

Jones

8

A

Plusnin

12

A

Yokoyama

17

Maieroni

3

▼

Dent

10

⚽2

Macuace

11

▼

Doolan

15

⚽A

Bolton

21

▼

McKenzie

Manager: K. Dodd

63'▲J. Caspanello←▼C. McKenzie

69'▲G. Chiba←▼B. Doolan

90'▲L. Pullen←▼W. Dent

Brisbane City substitutes

22Caspanello9Chiba25Pullen1Stent2Piunti24Mitchell

Manager: S. Arnison

58'▲J. Enticknap←▼L. Walpole

58'▲M. Nezval←▼S. Lewis

79'▲D. Westwood-Pritchard←▼D. Robertson

79'▲S. Wiltshire←▼C. Lilley

SC Wanderers substitutes

30Enticknap7Nezval16Westwood-Pritchard9Wiltshire15Harrison20Bambach

Queensland NPL: Brisbane City 5–1 SC Wanderers

Brisbane City beat SC Wanderers 5-1 in Queensland NPL on May 13, 2023.

Goals: J. Macuace (37', 52'), K. Bolton (68'), M. Nezval (75' pen), M. Jones (87'), G. Chiba (89').

The match was played at Imperial Corp Stadium 1 in Brisbane.

Brisbane City vs SC Wanderers — Queensland NPL 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Queensland NPL: Brisbane City 5–1 SC Wanderers