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Brighton W vs Bristol City W — FA WSL 2018

Brighton W
Brighton W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol City W
Bristol City W
5/9/2021FA WSLFA WSL · Round 13The People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Brighton W52%
×Draw21%
Bristol City W27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brighton W
2.13
Bristol City W
1.48

Brighton W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 40 away

creates per match

Brighton W
1.16
Bristol City W
1.02

allows per match

Brighton W
1.94
Bristol City W
3.10

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par
Bristol City W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Bristol City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw
73%
Brighton W or Bristol City W
79%
Draw or Bristol City W
48%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+
31%
Bristol City W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals
88%
Brighton W 2+ goals
63%
Brighton W 3+ goals
35%
Bristol City W 1+ goals
77%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
43%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)
66%
Bristol City W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 85 matches

Bristol City W away — creates 1.02, concedes 3.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 1.16 + Bristol City W defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

Bristol City W attack 1.02 + Brighton W defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brighton W scores more
52%
level
21%
Bristol City W scores more
27%

Brighton W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brighton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Brighton W 3–1 Bristol City W

Brighton W beat Bristol City W 3-1 in FA WSL on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at The People's Pension Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.