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Brighton W vs Bristol City W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Brighton W
Brighton W
FT
1 – 0
Bristol City W
Bristol City W
4/18/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 4th RoundThe People's Pension Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brighton W65%
×Draw19%
Bristol City W16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brighton W
2.29
Bristol City W
1.04

Brighton W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Brighton W
2.33
Bristol City W
0.75

allows per match

Brighton W
1.33
Bristol City W
2.25

finishing

Brighton W+0.00on par
Bristol City W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brighton W ↓

Bristol City W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Brighton W or draw
84%
Brighton W or Bristol City W
81%
Draw or Bristol City W
35%

Winning margin

Brighton W wins by 2+
42%
Bristol City W wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Brighton W 1+ goals
90%
Brighton W 2+ goals
66%
Brighton W 3+ goals
40%
Bristol City W 1+ goals
65%
Bristol City W 2+ goals
28%
Bristol City W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brighton W (draw refunded)
80%
Bristol City W (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brighton W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Bristol City W away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brighton W attack 2.33 + Bristol City W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Bristol City W attack 0.75 + Brighton W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Brighton W scores more
65%
level
19%
Bristol City W scores more
16%

Brighton W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Brighton W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Brighton W 1–0 Bristol City W

Brighton W beat Bristol City W 1-0 in FA Women's Cup on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at The People's Pension Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.