Brežice 1–1 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 3. SNL - East

Brežice

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fužinar

10/19/2025

3. SNL - East · East - 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brežice54%

×Draw24%

Fužinar22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrežiceExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.00

Brežice

1.71

Fužinar

1.00

Brežice creates 71% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

1.25

0.75

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Brežice

2.00

Fužinar

1.25

allows per match

Brežice

0.75

Fužinar

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brežice or draw

78%

Brežice or Fužinar

76%

Draw or Fužinar

46%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+

30%

Fužinar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals

82%

Brežice 2+ goals

51%

Brežice 3+ goals

24%

Fužinar 1+ goals

63%

Fužinar 2+ goals

26%

Fužinar 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)

71%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 2.00 + Fužinar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fužinar attack 1.25 + Brežice defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brežice scores more

54%

level

24%

Fužinar scores more

22%

Brežice at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff