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Brežice vs Fužinar — 2. SNL 2019

Brežice
Brežice
CANC
15:00
Fužinar
Fužinar
4/21/20212. SNL2. SNL · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Brežice42%
×Draw25%
Fužinar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brežice
1.52
Fužinar
1.31

Brežice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 64 away

creates per match

Brežice
1.21
Fužinar
1.36

allows per match

Brežice
1.26
Fužinar
1.83

finishing

Brežice+0.00on par
Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brežice ↓

Fužinar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Brežice or draw
67%
Brežice or Fužinar
75%
Draw or Fužinar
58%

Winning margin

Brežice wins by 2+
21%
Fužinar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brežice 1+ goals
78%
Brežice 2+ goals
45%
Brežice 3+ goals
20%
Fužinar 1+ goals
73%
Fužinar 2+ goals
38%
Fužinar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Brežice (draw refunded)
56%
Fužinar (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brežice at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brežice attack 1.21 + Fužinar defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fužinar attack 1.36 + Brežice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brežice scores more
42%
level
25%
Fužinar scores more
33%

Brežice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brežice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Brežice host Fužinar

April 21, 2021: Brežice take on Fužinar in 2. SNL. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.