Brentford 1–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

O. Watkins 16'

6/26/2020

Championship · Round 39Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Brentford51%

×Draw25%

West Brom24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.03

Brentford

1.61

West Brom

1.03

Brentford creates 56% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 163 away

1.96

creates per match

1.18

0.89

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Brentford

1.96

West Brom

1.18

allows per match

Brentford

0.89

West Brom

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

76%

Brentford or West Brom

75%

Draw or West Brom

49%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

27%

West Brom wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

80%

Brentford 2+ goals

48%

Brentford 3+ goals

22%

West Brom 1+ goals

64%

West Brom 2+ goals

28%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

68%

West Brom (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.89 · 74 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.26 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.96 + West Brom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.61

West Brom attack 1.18 + Brentford defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brentford scores more

51%

level

25%

West Brom scores more

24%

Brentford at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. Pinnock

Brentford · D

7.7

Match Events

16'

O. Watkins

45'

Christian Nørgaard

46'

K. Zohorè← H. Robson-Kanu

46'

F. Krovinović← M. Phillips

55'

Emiliano Marcondes

55'

Romaine Sawyers

66'

R. Harper← J. Livermore

70'

B. Mbeumo← T. Fosu

70'

S. Baptiste← E. Marcondes

79'

C. Robinson← G. Diangana

83'

K. Mokotjo← J. Dasilva

90'

K. Edwards← Matheus Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordWest

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots12

3Corners2

18Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target2

3Off Target8

4Blocked2

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

387Total Passes377

301Accurate Passes282

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2