Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brentford vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Brentford
Brentford
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
3/16/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 38Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Brentford50%
×Draw25%
West Brom25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brentford
1.60
West Brom
1.05

Brentford creates 52% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 163 away

creates per match

Brentford
1.95
West Brom
1.18

allows per match

Brentford
0.92
West Brom
1.26

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brentford or draw
75%
Brentford or West Brom
75%
Draw or West Brom
50%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+
26%
West Brom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals
80%
Brentford 2+ goals
47%
Brentford 3+ goals
22%
West Brom 1+ goals
65%
West Brom 2+ goals
28%
West Brom 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)
67%
West Brom (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.92 · 75 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.26 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.95 + West Brom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.60

West Brom attack 1.18 + Brentford defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brentford scores more
50%
level
25%
West Brom scores more
25%

Brentford at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Brentford 0–1 West Brom

West Brom beat Brentford 1-0 in Championship on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Griffin Park in London.