Brentford 2–0 Millwall: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

O. Watkins 85'

Sergi Canós 48'

11/3/2018

Championship · Round 16Griffin Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Brentford52%

×Draw25%

Millwall23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Brentford

1.58

Millwall

0.96

Brentford creates 65% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 189 away

1.93

creates per match

1.04

0.87

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Brentford

1.93

Millwall

1.04

allows per match

Brentford

0.87

Millwall

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brentford+0.00on par

Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

77%

Brentford or Millwall

75%

Draw or Millwall

48%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

27%

Millwall wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

79%

Brentford 2+ goals

47%

Brentford 3+ goals

21%

Millwall 1+ goals

62%

Millwall 2+ goals

25%

Millwall 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

69%

Millwall (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 68 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.93 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.58

Millwall attack 1.04 + Brentford defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Brentford scores more

52%

level

25%

Millwall scores more

23%

Brentford at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

N. Maupay

Brentford · F

8.1

Match Events

24'

Romaine Sawyers

32'

Ryan Leonard

48'

Sergi Canós↳ N. Maupay

58'

S. Morison← T. Elliott

64'

J. Wallace← J. Skalák

73'

O. Watkins← Sergi Canós

79'

T. Bradshaw← M. Wallace

82'

A. Judge← S. Benrahma

85'

O. Watkins↳ N. Maupay

88'

J. Dasilva← J. McEachran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordMillwall

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots10

9Corners3

8Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots10

4On Target1

7Off Target7

7Blocked2

9Inside Box8

9Outside Box2

Passing

62%Possession38%

487Total Passes297

370Accurate Passes167

76%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides3