Brentford 0–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Brentford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea

B. Chilwell 45'

10/16/2021

Premier League · Round 8Brentford Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Brentford44%

×Draw24%

Chelsea32%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrentfordExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.40

Brentford

1.67

Chelsea

1.40

Brentford creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 35 away

1.85

creates per match

1.49

1.30

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Brentford

1.85

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Brentford

1.30

Chelsea

1.49

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Brentford-0.23scores less

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brentford ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Brentford or draw

68%

Brentford or Chelsea

76%

Draw or Chelsea

56%

Winning margin

Brentford wins by 2+

23%

Chelsea wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Brentford 1+ goals

81%

Brentford 2+ goals

50%

Brentford 3+ goals

23%

Chelsea 1+ goals

75%

Chelsea 2+ goals

41%

Chelsea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Brentford (draw refunded)

58%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brentford at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 29 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brentford attack 1.85 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.67

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Brentford defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Brentford scores more

44%

level

24%

Chelsea scores more

32%

Brentford at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Mendy

Chelsea · G

8.3

Match Events

18'

32'

45'

65'

67'

72'

S. Ghoddos← Sergi Canós

76'

K. Havertz← R. Lukaku

89'

R. James← Azpilicueta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrentfordChelsea

Overview

44%Possession56%

17Total Shots5

5Corners5

13Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots5

7On Target1

3Off Target3

7Blocked1

13Inside Box1

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

405Total Passes540

305Accurate Passes458

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4