Breno 0–2 Bassano Virtus: Result & Stats

Breno

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bassano Virtus

T. H. Olonisakin 56'

L. Forte 1'

12/3/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Campo Sportivo Comunale Tassara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Breno32%

×Draw29%

Bassano Virtus38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrenoExpected goals in this matchBassano Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.14

Breno

1.02

Bassano Virtus

1.14

Bassano Virtus creates 12% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

1.12

creates per match

0.92

1.35

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Breno

1.12

Bassano Virtus

0.92

allows per match

Breno

1.35

Bassano Virtus

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Breno+0.00on par

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breno ↓

Bassano Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Breno or draw

62%

Breno or Bassano Virtus

71%

Draw or Bassano Virtus

68%

Winning margin

Breno wins by 2+

12%

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Breno 1+ goals

64%

Breno 2+ goals

27%

Breno 3+ goals

8%

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals

68%

Bassano Virtus 2+ goals

32%

Bassano Virtus 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Breno (draw refunded)

46%

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breno at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breno attack 1.12 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Breno defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Breno scores more

32%

level

29%

Bassano Virtus scores more

38%

Bassano Virtus at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

L. Forte

56'

T. H. Olonisakin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff