Bassano Virtus 0–2 Breno: Result & Stats

Bassano Virtus

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Breno

D. Vita 49'

N. Verzeni 43'

4/14/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio Rino Mercante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bassano Virtus47%

×Draw27%

Breno27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bassano VirtusExpected goals in this matchBreno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.00

Bassano Virtus

1.42

Breno

1.00

Bassano Virtus creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

1.30

creates per match

1.18

0.83

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Bassano Virtus

1.30

Breno

1.18

allows per match

Bassano Virtus

0.83

Breno

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Breno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassano Virtus ↓

Breno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bassano Virtus or draw

73%

Bassano Virtus or Breno

73%

Draw or Breno

53%

Winning margin

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+

23%

Breno wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals

76%

Bassano Virtus 2+ goals

41%

Bassano Virtus 3+ goals

17%

Breno 1+ goals

63%

Breno 2+ goals

26%

Breno 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)

64%

Breno (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassano Virtus at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Breno away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassano Virtus attack 1.30 + Breno defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Breno attack 1.18 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bassano Virtus scores more

47%

level

27%

Breno scores more

27%

Bassano Virtus at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

N. Verzeni

49'

D. Vita

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff