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Bremnes vs Brann II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Bremnes
Bremnes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Brann II
Brann II
M. Rasmussen 82' (pen)
A. Jonsson 79'
5/10/20223. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 5Elverum Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bremnes29%
×Draw20%
Brann II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bremnes
1.67
Brann II
2.26

Brann II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bremnes
1.81
Brann II
2.11

allows per match

Bremnes
2.42
Brann II
1.53

finishing

Bremnes+0.00on par
Brann II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremnes ↓

Brann II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bremnes or draw
49%
Bremnes or Brann II
80%
Draw or Brann II
71%

Winning margin

Bremnes wins by 2+
14%
Brann II wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bremnes 1+ goals
81%
Bremnes 2+ goals
50%
Bremnes 3+ goals
23%
Brann II 1+ goals
89%
Brann II 2+ goals
66%
Brann II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Bremnes (draw refunded)
36%
Brann II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremnes at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Brann II away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremnes attack 1.81 + Brann II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.67

Brann II attack 2.11 + Bremnes defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bremnes scores more
29%
level
20%
Brann II scores more
51%

Brann II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'
A. Jonsson
82'
M. RasmussenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bremnes vs Brann II

Brann II beat Bremnes 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 10, 2022.

Goals: A. Jonsson (79'), M. Rasmussen (82' pen).

The match was played at Elverum Stadion in Elverum.