Brann II 1–0 Bremnes: Result & Stats

Brann II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bremnes

7/16/2022

3. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 15Nymark Kunstgress 03

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Brann II75%

×Draw14%

Bremnes11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brann IIExpected goals in this matchBremnes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.09

Brann II

3.00

Bremnes

1.09

Brann II creates 175% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

2.89

creates per match

1.19

1.00

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

Brann II

2.89

Bremnes

1.19

allows per match

Brann II

1.00

Bremnes

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brann II+0.00on par

Bremnes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann II ↓

Bremnes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Brann II or draw

89%

Brann II or Bremnes

86%

Draw or Bremnes

25%

Winning margin

Brann II wins by 2+

55%

Bremnes wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Brann II 1+ goals

95%

Brann II 2+ goals

79%

Brann II 3+ goals

56%

Bremnes 1+ goals

66%

Bremnes 2+ goals

30%

Bremnes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brann II (draw refunded)

87%

Bremnes (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann II at home — creates 2.89, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Bremnes away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann II attack 2.89 + Bremnes defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 3.00

Bremnes attack 1.19 + Brann II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Brann II scores more

75%

level

14%

Bremnes scores more

11%

Brann II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Brann II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff