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Breitenrain vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
2 – 1
Köniz
Köniz
11/10/20181. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 16Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Breitenrain62%
×Draw19%
Köniz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
2.38
Köniz
1.25

Breitenrain creates 90% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 22 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
1.89
Köniz
1.09

allows per match

Breitenrain
1.40
Köniz
2.86

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
81%
Breitenrain or Köniz
81%
Draw or Köniz
38%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
40%
Köniz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
91%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
68%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
42%
Köniz 1+ goals
71%
Köniz 2+ goals
36%
Köniz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
77%
Köniz (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.89 + Köniz defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.38

Köniz attack 1.09 + Breitenrain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Breitenrain scores more
62%
level
19%
Köniz scores more
19%

Breitenrain at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Promotion: Breitenrain 2–1 Köniz

Breitenrain beat Köniz 2-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Sportplatz Spitalacker in Bern.