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Breitenrain vs Köniz — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
3 – 1
Köniz
Köniz
9/21/20191. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 9Sportplatz Spitalacker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Breitenrain61%
×Draw19%
Köniz20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
2.38
Köniz
1.30

Breitenrain creates 83% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 20 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
1.90
Köniz
1.20

allows per match

Breitenrain
1.40
Köniz
2.85

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

Köniz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
80%
Breitenrain or Köniz
81%
Draw or Köniz
39%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
39%
Köniz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
91%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
68%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
42%
Köniz 1+ goals
73%
Köniz 2+ goals
37%
Köniz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
75%
Köniz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 107 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 1.90 + Köniz defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.38

Köniz attack 1.20 + Breitenrain defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Breitenrain scores more
61%
level
19%
Köniz scores more
20%

Breitenrain at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Breitenrain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Breitenrain vs Köniz

Breitenrain beat Köniz 3-1 in 1. Liga Promotion on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Spitalacker in Bern.