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Breitenrain vs BSC Young Boys — Schweizer Cup 2019

Breitenrain
Breitenrain
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
8/18/2023Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · 1st RoundStadion Wankdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Breitenrain4%
×Draw9%
BSC Young Boys86%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Breitenrain
0.69
BSC Young Boys
3.38

BSC Young Boys creates 390% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

creates per match

Breitenrain
0.33
BSC Young Boys
3.77

allows per match

Breitenrain
3.00
BSC Young Boys
1.05

finishing

Breitenrain+0.00on par
BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Breitenrain ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–210%
0–312%
0–410%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (12%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Breitenrain or draw
14%
Breitenrain or BSC Young Boys
91%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
96%

Winning margin

Breitenrain wins by 2+
1%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
70%

Team goals

Breitenrain 1+ goals
50%
Breitenrain 2+ goals
15%
Breitenrain 3+ goals
3%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
96%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
84%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Breitenrain (draw refunded)
5%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
95%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Breitenrain at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 3.77, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Breitenrain attack 0.33 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.69

BSC Young Boys attack 3.77 + Breitenrain defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Breitenrain scores more
4%
level
9%
BSC Young Boys scores more
86%

BSC Young Boys at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "BSC Young Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Breitenrain vs BSC Young Boys

BSC Young Boys beat Breitenrain 5-0 in Schweizer Cup on August 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Wankdorf in Bern.